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Why Bitcoin Might Be Away From $100,000, Says Fidelity Expert?

The bulls are back in control after a slight drop in the price of bitcoin. The first cryptocurrency by market cap traded north of $57,000 with gains of 2.5% and 11.1% on the daily and weekly charts, respectively.

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BTC is on a rally in the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD Tradingview

The general sentiment in the market is bullish, as operators and traders expect bitcoin to complete its historical performance. The price of BTC usually moves upwards towards the end of the year.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Price RSI Is Ready to Blast Back in the “Bull Zone”

Bitcoin is trading below $10,000 from its all-time high of $64,870 and it could be headed into uncharted territory, as Jurian Timmer, director of macros at Fidelity, said in an interview with CNBC, short-term holders FOMO in BTC. These investors are those who have only BTC for the last 3 months.

As seen in the chart below, the “momentum chaser” currently holds only 15% of the total supply of BTC. For Bitcoin to reach new highs, this metric must be above 20%.

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Source: Jurian Timmer via Twitter

In that sense, Timmer believes that the current bullishness of Bitcoin lacks the “excessiveness” that could suggest some stability and stability to the current price action. Unlike previous rallies, this time bitcoin is going out of the influence of “speculators”, as Timmer called them.

However, some traders may find Timmer’s prediction disappointing as they believe that the benchmark crypto is far from the key psychological mark of $100,000.

Related Reading | Bitcoin short-term supply hits all-time low

When the expert examined the bitcoin/gold ratio to analyze the supply of BTC demand model, he found the following:

So is bitcoin hitting new highs? I know better than to make bold price estimates, but I’ll note that the next (and final) timing of my supply and demand model is around $100k in 2023 or 2024.

bitcoin btc btcusdbitcoin btc btcusd
Source: Jurian Timmer via Twitter

Bitcoin Far From Top, Bulls Move on to the Accelerator

Analyst Alan Au, on the other hand, looked to the Bitcoin Pie Cycle Top Indicator to determine whether the cryptocurrency has entered a bearish phase. This metric has historically been accurate for predicting market tops.

As explained by the analyst, it uses a 111-day simple moving average and a 250 simple moving average (SMA) of the bitcoin price. When these two converge, operators begin to suspect that BTC has reached its peak.

Related Reading | Bitcoin whale accumulation pattern shows strong bullish sentiment among top holders

Unlike Timer, this model predicts the price of bitcoin to exceed the $300,000 mark by the end of 2021. As the analyst explained, Bitcoin needs to outperform the previous bullish cycle for the metric to be accurate:

What I have shown is not to invalidate the Pi Cycle Top indicator or agree that there is a long cycle. What simulations have shown is that if BTC is no longer in a supercycle, the Picycle Top will miss BTC’s cycle peak if it occurs in December 2021.

BTC BTCUSDBTC BTCUSD
Source: Alan Au via Twitter

In the scenarios presented by AU, without taking into account the exact BTC price prediction, the cryptocurrency will continue to trend upward until it reaches its potential peak at least in 2022.

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